Happy New Year, and My 2006 Predictions
Happy new year everyone!
I have no idea what’s in store for the next year for all of you, but I hope that the worst of 2006 is as good as the best bits of 2005. I’ve picked that phrase up from somewhere, and I think it’s really appropriate. Can’t remember who to credit though. In any case, some personal and world predictions from yours truly to mull over…
Podcasting
There will be a number of high profile sponsorship and promotion deals in the podcasting world and at least 100 podcasters will be able to live from income derived directly from their podcast by the middle of the year. I’d expect that number to rise to over 500 by Dec 06. I’m discounting here services such as LibSyn or management teams behind organisations like Podshow and The Podcast Network – I’m talking purely about the people who are making podcasts.
At least three high profile podcasters will leave Podshow, causing the blogosphere to go crazy and spell the doom of the ‘casters and Podshow (neither of which will happen). Replacement presenters will be found, but the indie shows from the original podcasters will prove more popular.
The TPN Rock brand will be picked up for syndication on broadcast radio, allowing me to showcase more unsigned, unknown and underappreciated bands to the world.
Brian Ibbot will stop Coverville and concentrate on Not Lame due to legal problems on the mechanical rights of the covered songs.
Smartphones
Microsoft’s Mobile OS (which I think is Microsoft Windows Mobile Powered 2005 edition in it’s current guise) will yet again prove the “third version works” rule, and thanks to having credible competition, will cause greater acceptance of Symbian OS.
Strangely, by increasing the market share of Symbian OS (with Symbian sales of at least 50 million units in 2006), the increased number of ‘in the real world’ Microsoft powered devices will result in a lower market share than they have now of the smartphone market. Lies, damned lies, and statistics…
Music phones are going to sell by the bucket-load, but only because every phone with stereo MP3 playback will be counted as a music phone. Back to those statistics. Given the baseline functionality in a msartphone, they could be called anything that’s in fashion. I really don’t seen the online music delivery stores with DRM getting past their break even point.
One UK carrier will offer a flat-rate data plan which will be capped in the small print to something like 1 gb a month, and locked down to email and basic web browsing only. Thanks to this, mobile IRC won’t be possible, so I won’t be switching my business to T-Mobile.
Someone will sue Jacek Rutkowski for defamation of character.
Other Things In My Life
I’ll be awarded Platinum Stats in American Airlines frequent flier program, and spend most of March in the USA.
Podcasting will make up a significant proportion of my income.
Fun-1 will be relaunched (if you look now you’ll see me testing the new layout and feel) for the 2006 season of Formula 1, both Jim and I will make a success of it this time around (see Microsoft’s ‘third version’ rule).
I’ll host a show on one of Edinburgh’s local commercial radio stations.
Come on now Ewan! That one’s far fetched! The rest seem plausible though ;)
Jason, I don’t see why not – after all I’ve just had two weeks on Edinburgh’s local community radio station… I’m pretty sure I can manage this one with some focus and dedication!
:) And they totally kicked ass, by the way! I keep forgetting sarcastic humour doesn’t come across so well on the internet.
The show has been excellent lately. My point was that I hope that if any of those predictions comes true it’s that one! Keep it up Ewen. I have a feeling, just from listening, that you’re extremly dedicated and focused, and a goal like that is so easily attainable it’s not even funny.
Hey, that reminds me. I had problems with Rock Again #3. The MP3 was all screwed up. I’ll try downloading it now, after all this time and see if it was just me, but I was wondering if anyone else had the same problem.
Jason,
My ‘check’ on the RSS Feed (iTunes 4.0, fact fans) has TPN RA #03 coming down fine. Please do a redownlaod (poss direct fromt he site?) and see if it’s still SNAFU’ed and let me know?
Glad you’re enjoying the show. TPN Rock #40 is up next Friday, and the decade shows are always a corker – and extended length as well!
Interesting muses.
I agree that there will be money in podcasting during 2006, although I’m sure it won’t be till the end of the year before people will be earning enough money to ‘quit the day job’ (excuse the marketing spin…blargh)
Only 3 high-profile Podshow quitters? Interesting…
Mark, to clear that up, I meant three Podshow Music Shows. I’d hate to hazzard a gues at Podshow as a whole. You’ll notice the ramp up in numbers Q1+2 only 100 and an additional 400 in Q3+4, so yes, it’ll be towards the end of the year for the bulk of people (the infamous long tail).